白俄罗斯:黑夜还是黎明?

发自华盛顿特区——随着民主浪潮席卷整个阿拉伯地区,白俄罗斯这块欧洲前苏联阵营最后阵地的形势也急剧恶化——总统亚历山大·卢卡申科于去年12月暴力镇压大选后示威活动并将9位反对他的总统候选人中的7位投入监狱。而在世界各国及地区政府——尤其是欧盟——对此作出回应之时,他们应当将卢卡申科的残酷镇压视为一个重要的转折点:该政权已经无法获得民众的支持,并被迫面对其腐朽落后的社会经济模式所导致的恶果了。

卢卡申科的政权是构筑在三大基础之上的:首先是政府承诺维护民族独立并确保民众至少能拥有一份低收入,而“交易”的筹码则是要民众默许独裁统治;其次是一个不断灌输这种价值观和“交易”必要性的宣传机器;最后则是具体执行这一“交易”的庞大特务机关。

或许在1994年卢卡申科首次上台并执政至今的这十几年间,大多数白俄罗斯人确实认同过这种统治,因为他们相信这样能令自己不致遭遇邻国俄罗斯的那种“东方式的疯狂资本主义”所引发的乱象:腐败丛生的私有化,失业和黑手党统治。但随着时间的流逝以及白俄罗斯人逐渐了解西方,对卢卡申科的信任就再也无法维系下去了。

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