La desunión bancaria europea

BRUSELAS – El propósito del euro fue la creación de mercados financieros plenamente integrados; no obstante, desde el inicio de la crisis financiera mundial en el año 2008, los mercados están siendo renacionalizados. Por lo tanto, el futuro de la eurozona depende de manera crucial de si esa tendencia continúa o si los mercados financieros de Europa van a integrarse plenamente. Sin embargo, cualquiera de estos resultados es preferible a algo que se quede en el medio – es decir, a algo que no sea ni chicha ni limonada. Lamentablemente, parece que la eurozona se dirige a ese lugar ambiguo.

La tendencia a la renacionalización ha sido clara. Desde el final boom crediticito en el año 2008, los créditos transfronterizos que los bancos con sede en el centro de la eurozona (fundamentalmente, los bancos con sede en Alemania y en países más pequeños que son vecinos de Alemania) realizan a la periferia de la eurozona han caído fuertemente desde un nivel de alrededor de 1,6 millones de millones de euros (2,2 millones de millones de dólares) a menos de la mitad de dicha cifra. (Parte de la diferencia ha terminado siendo contabilizada en el balance de resultados del Banco Central Europeo (BCE), pero esa no puede ser una solución permanente).

Esta tendencia podría continuar así hasta que los créditos transfronterizos lleguen a una cifra tan pequeña que ya no sea sistémicamente importante – tal como ocurría antes de la introducción del euro. Al ritmo actual, se puede alcanzar dicho punto en el transcurso de unos pocos años. La integración financiera suscitada por el euro se revertiría.

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