Bankenunion oder Renationalisierung?

BRÜSSEL – Ziel der Euroeinführung war die Schaffung vollständig integrierter Finanzmärkte, doch seit Beginn der globalen Finanzkrise im Jahr 2008 hat eine Renationalisierung der Märkte stattgefunden. Somit hängt die Zukunft der Eurozone in entscheidendem Maße davon ab, ob dieser Trend anhält oder eine vollständige Integration der europäischen Finanzmärkte erfolgt. Welcher dieser beiden Fälle auch eintritt: Das Ergebnis wäre einem Mittelding vorzuziehen, das weder Fisch noch Fleisch ist. Bedauerlicherweise scheint die Eurozone diesen Weg eingeschlagen zu haben.

Der Trend zur Renationalisierung hat sich deutlich abgezeichnet. Seit dem Ende des Kreditbooms im Jahr 2008 sind die grenzüberschreitenden Forderungen von Banken, die in den Kernländern der Eurozone ansässig sind (im Wesentlichen Deutschland und seine kleineren Nachbarn) gegenüber Peripherieländern der Eurozone von 1,6 Billionen Euro (2,2 Billionen US-Dollar) auf weniger als die Hälfte dieser Summe gesunken. (Ein Teil der Differenz ist in der Bilanz der Europäischen Zentralbank (EZB) gelandet, aber das kann keine dauerhafte Lösung sein.)

Es kann gut sein, dass dieser Trend anhält bis grenzüberschreitende Forderungen so gering werden, dass sie nicht mehr systemrelevant sind – wie es vor der Euroeinführung der Fall war. Beim derzeitigen Tempo könnte dieser Punkt innerhalb weniger Jahre erreicht sein. Die Finanzmarktintegration, die der Euro bewirkt hat, würde weitgehend aufgelöst.

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