Economics

重启乌克兰经济

Apr 3, 2014 Daniel Gros

布鲁塞尔—在东西方各国，有一个大问题扑面而来：“谁失去了乌克兰？”不幸的是，这并不是现在最重要的问题。

关系更大的问题是如何稳定乌克兰的局面。既然无法让俄罗斯远离克里米亚，那么现在的主要挑战就是保持乌克兰其余部分统一并重启其经济。由于不可持续的财政和外部赤字，乌克兰经济现在毫无活力。

关键改革问题已是众所周知：天然气价格必须大幅提高以反映其成本；国内煤炭生产补贴必须停止；仍在产生巨大特许费的俄罗斯至西欧输气管道的治理问题应该修正。这些管道通过暗中交易转到了名义上的私人公司手中，至此以后，巨大的输气费收入就和大量天然气一起人间蒸发了，维护工作也陷入了停顿。

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 6 Comments on this article

Yuriy Gorodnichenko Apr 9, 2014

The problem is that if you front load all these unpopular measure, you can end with another Greece
http://voxukraine.blogspot.com/2014/03/imfs-program-in-ukraine-how-to-create.html
Also, I do not agree with handing the pipelines to EU or another other country or international organization. For the same reason EU does not want to give pipelines to Gazprom
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Vidvuds Beldavs Apr 6, 2014

Excellent ideas, particularly the idea of having an organization like the European Bank for Development manage the pipelines to bring professional, more transparent management to this vital resource. A challenge not referenced in the article is the apparent intent of Russia to destroy the Ukranian state and replace it with an archipelago of ethnic enclaves that can be readily manipulated in a divide and conquer strategy such as used by Putin in Chechnya. No economic reforms would be possible with such fragmentation of the country. Perhaps the imperative for economic reforms can provide the defense against the Russian strategy. For the IMF, the EU and the US to see some change that the massive investment being made has a chance of success, major reforms are necessary. In the lead-up to the Vilnius Summit it was clear that the vast majority of the people of Ukraine were in favor of the Association Agreement with 315 out of 349 deputies in the parliament approving.
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RE Mant Apr 5, 2014

Or how to finance this resources grab...
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Val Samonis Apr 4, 2014

WHAT REALLY WORKS: the whole world can participate in outlining the Ukrainian strategy through my suggested Virtual Interactive Think Tank for Ukraine (VITTU), a truly modern paradigm for drawing lessons from markets developed, developing, and trapped in development.

Val Samonis
Vilnius U
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Velko Simeonov Apr 4, 2014

Sounds good, in fact too good to actually happen. Mr. Gros is right to point out that most of the Ukrainian infrastructure is old inefficient and will not survive market competition. However, Mr. Gros is mistaken if he thinks that any effort by the EU (even if it is perfectly coordinated and backed up with sufficient funds) can reasonably quickly result in the creation of new and expansion of existing modern enterprises. Second, even if the plan succeeds (I live in eastern Europe and I can tell you for sure that it is not going to happen) modern means of production are usually much less labor intensive as compared to the old fashioned labor and energy intensive manufacturing lines currently working in the country. That means that most of the unemployed will remain so for a long, long time. In short if the Ukrainians follow the IMF/EU/US plans, skyrocketing costs of living, coupled with increased unemployment further deterioration of all state provided services (security, health, education..), the result will be disastrous for Ukraine and all EU/US plans for the region. The irony is that at the end of day Putin might prevail not despite of, but as a direct result of the realization of the EU/IMF/US plans.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Velko Simeonov Apr 4, 2014

Sounds good, in fact too good to actually happen. Mr. Gros is right to point out that most of the Ukrainian infrastructure is old inefficient and will not survive market competition. However, Mr. Gros is mistaken if he thinks that any effort by the EU (even if it is perfectly coordinated and backed up with sufficient funds) can reasonably quickly result in the creation of new and expansion of existing modern enterprises. Second, even if the plan succeeds (I live in eastern Europe and I can tell you for sure that it is not going to happen) modern means of production are usually much less labor intensive as compared to the old fashioned labor and energy intensive manufacturing lines currently working in the country. That means that most of the unemployed will remain so for a long, long time. In short if the Ukrainians follow the IMF/EU/US plans, skyrocketing costs of living, coupled with increased unemployment further deterioration of all state provided services (security, health, education..), the result will be disastrous for Ukraine and all EU/US plans for the region. The irony is that at the end of day Putin might prevail not despite of, but as a direct result of the realization of the EU/IMF/US plans.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.

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