chatzipanagiotou1_ Danil ShamkinNurPhoto via Getty Images_refugee cyprus

The New Eastern Mediterranean Crisis

Sep 14, 2020 Hrishabh Sandilya , Kyriaki Chatzipanagiotou, Sarah Morsheimer

While much of the world remains distracted by the COVID-19 pandemic, Turkey is trying to reshape its geopolitical neighborhood, and Lebanon is descending into another domestic crisis. The situation is ripe for another migration crisis, for which European countries are woefully unprepared.

NICOSIA – Earlier this month, six boats carrying Syrian and Lebanese migrants set sail from northern Lebanon and attempted to dock in Cyprus. That might not sound like much, yet it is six times more than the total number of migrant vessels that have embarked for Cyprus from Lebanon over the last year. A fast boat can cover the 100 nautical miles between Tripoli and Cape Greco, a rocky outcrop in the southeast of the island, in six hours. And with Lebanon’s government in shambles, these calm, largely unpoliced waters are a smuggler’s dream.

Because the boats are small, only a few dozen people have made the trip so far. Already, though, the Cypriots have responded in a legally dubious manner. Violating the United Nations’ 1951 Refugee Convention and the non-refoulement principle, Cypriot authorities block the boats at sea and return the “economic migrants” to Lebanon, claiming they have an agreement with the Lebanese government.

In fact, Cyprus is simply unprepared for a new influx of refugees. Its prison-like migrant camps are already overcrowded, and its asylum system is a thicket of Byzantine bureaucracy and convoluted laws. Processing an asylum application currently takes 3-5 years. And while the government has recently tried to legislate its way out of the mess, concerns about refugee rights and due process remain.

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j. von Hettlingen Sep 19, 2020

As Hrishabh Sandilya, Kyriaki Chatzipanagiotou and Sarah Morsheimer highlight the crisis in the Eastern Mediterranean, EU leaders met last month in an effort to resolve the ongoing maritime claims between Greece and Turkey, based on the discovery of gas and oil reserves in the disputed waters. There is fear that rising tensions between the two NATO allies could erupt into a full-scale military confrontation, that might drag regional and international actors into the fray.
Greece’s claims are based on the so-called Seville map, which was commissioned by the European Union in the early 2000s and gives maximal maritime boundaries to every Greek island in the region, no matter how close to Turkey’s borders. Turkey has dismissed the map, claiming it unfairly and unjustly encroaches on its exclusive economic zone. Ankara has been drifting away from the West in recent years as it seeks to cultivate a deeper relationship with Russia.
Turkey might sign a deal with Russia to buy an additional batch of its S-400 missile systems, this would further deteriorate its relations with the other NATO allies, drawing the Trump administration’s ire. Four weeks ago Greece sent naval vessels to the eastern Mediterranean to conduct a joint military exercise with France, Italy and Cyprus, in response to Turkey’s decision to extend its maritime research trip in the area that was accompanied by Turkish naval vessels.
The authors say, amid the ravaging Covid-19 pandemic, the world pays little attention to the humanitarian crisis in the region. Lebanon, the country that hosts the largest number of refugees per capita - around 1.5 million Syrian refugees, some 20,000 refugees of other origins, in addition to the Palestine refugees under UNRWA's mandate - is descending into another domestic crisis, following the devastating blast last month, that killed hundreds and left thousands without homes.
This allows Turkey’s president Erdogan to pursue a “neo-Ottoman project to expand Turkey’s influence in the region, waging proxy wars, claiming gas fields, converting museums into mosques, and threatening Europe with new waves of migrants.” His aggression could spark “another migration crisis, for which European countries are woefully unprepared.” Turkey currently has some 3.6 million Syrian refugees and 330,000 persons from other nationalities that he could use as bargaining chip.
Greece is again at the epicentre of a refugee crisis. Back in 2015 it provided those fleeing wars a refuge. But today the mood is quite hostile. Xenophobic sentiments had led to an outbreak of violence against refugees stranded on its territory over the last four years. "With Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis taking a firm stand and challenging the presence of Turkish surveyor ships in contested waters, Cyprus has been caught in the crossfire.”
The author says, “Cyprus is simply unprepared for a new influx of refugees. Its prison-like migrant camps are already overcrowded, and its asylum system is a thicket of Byzantine bureaucracy and convoluted laws. Processing an asylum application currently takes 3-5 years. And while the government has recently tried to legislate its way out of the mess, concerns about refugee rights and due process remain.”
As winter is approaching, which could “exacerbate the COVID-19 pandemic….it would be wise for Cyprus, Greece, Turkey, and the EU to begin preparing for a potential next wave of refugees from the Levant." The authors say, “preparation….by local, regional, national, and international authorities could mitigate such a crisis.” They believe the SDG Impact Accelerator, which is inspired by the UN’s 17 Sustainable Development Goals, would be useful, as their own experience in Cyprus shows.
“Beyond basic operational readiness, location-specific humanitarian aid and information campaigns are needed in northern Lebanon, Cyprus, Greece, and across the EU, where the media should cover the issue in ways that evoke public empathy. Cyprus and Greece will need to be able to place their trust in the principle of European solidarity, which requires refugees from Lebanon and the greater Levant to be resettled proportionally in other EU member states. And any arrangement will need Erdoğan’s blessing, given that Turkey controls Northern Cyprus." This sounds promising. But it may just remain rhetoric, given the lack of appetite for actions.
“Between a potential migration crisis and the escalation of regional tensions, the situation in the eastern Mediterranean is more fraught than it has been in years. Should it unravel, Europe would face dire consequences for security on its southeastern flank. The EU must rise to the challenge and find common ground for regional cooperation. The recent fire that destroyed the Moria migrant camp on the Greek island of Lesbos is a stark reminder of how quickly the current semblance of stability can go up in smoke.”
Althoulgh Brexit has preoccupied EU leaders, they still find room to tackle the crisis, by proposing a series of options for national leaders to deliberate at the next EU summit in late September. The EU has all options are on the table, which includes possible sanctions against Turkey, as well as withdrawing its EU membership bid. But it may not be enough to rein in Erdogan, and to resolve the multilayered crisis in the region.
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Peter Schaeffer Sep 15, 2020

The migrants are just welfare-state opportunists. Send them home. No courts, no heading, no BS. Just immediate repatriation. This will actually work. Once the greedy and selfish realize that their is no reward for faking "refugee" status, they will stop. The Middle-East has many stable countries that can take real "refugees" (if any actually exist). The boat people are just the latest profiteers attempting to exploit what Europe has to offer.
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