Il valzer delle valute

BRUSSELS – Guido Mantega, il Ministro delle Finanze brasiliano, ha brillantemente inquadrato l'attuale Zeitgest monetario quando ha detto di scorgere una guerra valutaria all'orizzonte. Quella che sembrava essere una disputa bilaterale tra Stati Uniti e Cina sul tasso di cambio del renmimbi si è poi rivelata una controversia globale sui flussi di capitale e le valute.

Ogni paese, oggi, sembra intenzionato a far indebolire la propria valuta. Mentre il Giappone ha ricominciato ad intervenire sul mercato dei cambi, la Federal Reserve americana e la Banca d'Inghilterra si stanno preparando nuovamente ad acquisire grandi quantità di Titoli di Stato – una misura chiamata “alleggerimento quantitativo”, che abbassa il valore dei tassi d'interesse a lungo termine e, indirettamente, indebolisce la valuta.

La Cina sta resistendo strenuamente alle pressioni europee ed americane perché acceleri l'apprezzamento del renmimbi contro il dollaro, che procede attualmente a passo di lumaca. I mercati emergenti stanno ricorrendo ad una serie di misure per scoraggiare l'afflusso di capitali o sterilizzarne gli effetti sul tasso di cambio.

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