Číhající tygr, nebo papírový drak?

Když nedávno vysoce postavený expert na obranu vypovídal před kongresovou komisí USA o čínském vojenském potenciálu, podrobně popsal mimořádně rozsáhlý zbrojní program, který Lidově osvobozenecká armáda (LOA) uskutečňuje. Poukázal obzvlástě na rostoucí počet balistických střel s krátkým, středním i dlouhým doletem, jimiž LOA disponuje. Odborníkova řeč ovsem končila tím, že ačkoliv je počet raket znepokojivý, neznamená ,,hromadění zbraní.``

Vyvedeni takovým závěrem z míry, kongresmani začali neúnavně opakovat jedinou otázku: jestliže stávající rakety LOA nejsou ,,hromaděním zbraní``, jaký počet by jím byl? Neschopnost na tuto otázku jasně odpovědět zmátla a rozhořčila jak experta, tak komisi.

Tato příhoda ilustruje zásadní a bolestný problém: čím víc víme o dění v Číně, tím méně jistoty máme o tom, zda se Čína skutečně stala hrozbou. Víme, že Čína hned dvakrát zdvojnásobila výdaje na obranu, mimo jiné kvůli rozsáhlému programu rozvoje zbraní, který zahrnul i modernizaci zastrasujícího a odvetného nukleárního potenciálu. Přesto nedokážeme říct, zda je takový nárůst zbrojní připravenosti hrozivý.

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