新冠肺炎疫情过后的国际贸易

Apr 22, 2020 Victor K. Fung

香港–新型冠状病毒(COVID-19)大流行使世界陷入一个完全未知的危险境地，没有一国能独善其身。全球一半以上的人口处于某种形式的封锁措施之下。全球经济体，不论贫富，将陷入衰退，各国必须同心合力才能够减低疫情带来的负面影响。

中国作为新冠大流行的第一个中心，为全球携手抗疫提供了见解。湖北省长达两个多月的封城，加上全国范围内严格的交通限制，导致一月至二月期间全国工业企业利润下降近40%。纵使三月初工厂开始复工复产，但由于外国买家受疫情影响，厂方现需应对订单取消、延期以及付款延迟等问题。

因此，即使国内公共卫生状况正逐步恢复，中国经济复苏的速度某程度上仍然取决于世界其他地区。全球经济环环相扣，对任何一个国家而言，即使疫情在国内已经受到控制，世界其他地方的疫情爆发也会阻碍其经济复苏。

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stephan Edwards Apr 23, 2020

Wow the Author's got some case of optimism going. Globalization was becoming excessively unpopular before this mess struck. Does the author honestly believe that let's eliminate tariffs and ship even more jobs overseas is politically acceptable? Particularly in an environment were unemployment is skyrocketing with no recovery in sight? Because that would be the result the result of his advice. Not to mention likely a Nationalist possibly authoritarian strain rising that makes Donald Trump look like the Avon lady? Globalization has long been a zero sum game & the losers know it. There may be gains in GDP but the gains have NEVER made it below the professional class. So the author wants to ship even more jobs to the developing world for 2 dollars a day. What does he propose we with the people whose jobs are being handed over to the 3rd world? Soylent Green perhaps? We haven't got enough jobs that pay a living wage now and the author proposes shipping even more of them overseas? And for all the talk a 15$ dollar minimum wage won't help. Prices will rise to match & businesses on the margin will go over edge. The developed world WILL NOT be able to sustain a middle class life on service economy not for the majority in the working class. I don't know the answer! But I do surely know the answer isn't shipping even more decent paying jobs to the 3rd world. All that's going to do is get you leaders that make Genghis Khan look like Rebecca of Sunnybrook Farm.
- Joe Ryan Apr 26, 2020
  
  I disagree that pre-emptive surrender to the attitudes represented by Pres. Trump is politically necessary.
  
  Rather, let's leave him on his own in trying to persuade the public that giving the U.S. affiliates of multinational firms local monopolies in the U.S. will lead them to raise wages and offer fringe benefits and job security.
  - stephan Edwards Apr 26, 2020
    
    I don't like Trump I didn't vote for Trump. But the reality is if the Democrats (or any other party) runs on a platform of let's ship more jobs overseas and leave the working class less decent paying jobs. In an era of how much unemployment? The Democrats might has well put a gun to their heads and pull the trigger or alternatively you can watch while the loser's of Globalization elect someone who makes Hitler look like a Campfire Girl or Trump look like Mother Teresa. Shipping jobs to the 3rd world in the name of what? The bottom line? Is not popular it is not electable. Any party heck anyone who runs on a platform of Multilateralism i which is interpreted (Rightly or Wrongly) as let's help foreigner's at the expense of our own citizen's. And there are valid reason's for people to feel that way. Their interests were sacrificed for what ? While all the gains of Multilateralism & Globalization were confined to the upper classes and professional class all the sacrifices were made by the lower & working classes. No there is NO appetite or willingness in the vast majorities of the working class in the developed world for anymore globalization. You may not like Trump I may not like Trump but the fact however remains that he had a point on how globalization and it's winner take all ethos (Which for all the proclamations hasn't changed) has treated the working classes in the developed world. And before you dig out the Democrats argument that it was all the Republican's fault! One simple question, Of what Party was the President that signed NAFTA & admitted China to the WTO and gave them MFN?
    Hint! I don't think Clinton was a Republican. So spare me the Democrat holier then though arguments they don't hold water.
    - Joe Ryan Apr 26, 2020
      
      Agree that "you can't beat somethin' with nuthin'," as they say.
      
      I was implying that the best way to counter the attitudes represented by Pres. Trump is to change business practices in the U.S. rather than shielding bad practices by blaming foreigners. "Stakeholder capitalism" proposals are some of the things we should do.
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新冠肺炎疫情过后的国际贸易

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