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Economics

知识分子正在扼杀融合吗？

Sep 23, 2020 Arvind Subramanian and Josh Felman

发自新德里—新型冠状病毒疫情将如何影响发展中国家增长前景？答案在很大程度上取决于全球化进程——以及知识分子对它的支持——在疫情之后的发展。然而前景并不乐观。

即便在疫情来临之前，全球商品出口相对GDP的比率就已经出现了自二战以来的首次下降，自2008年以来下降了约5个百分点，而今年则下滑了20％左右。

这已经不是世界第一次去全球化了。在一战和二战前夕之间那段时间世界贸易就一度崩溃，当时出口相对GDP的比重从1913年16％的峰值下跌到仅仅超过6％。按照约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯（John Maynard Keynes）令人印象深刻的说法，这种收缩是“围绕军国主义和帝国主义、种族和文化竞争，以及垄断，限制和排斥目的所制定的方略和政治”的结果。

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Arvind Subramanian

Writing for PS since 2012
38 Commentaries

Arvind Subramanian is a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and the author of Of Counsel: The Challenges of the Modi-Jaitley Economy (India Viking, 2018).

Josh Felman

Writing for PS since 2018
11 Commentaries

Josh Felman is Principal of JH Consulting.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 6 Comments on this article

Chandrashekar Tamirisa Sep 26, 2020

What makes Trump tick? Trump has put his finger on two things: (1) social anxiety among whites that they would be losing “white privilege” as they become the largest US racial minority by 2050 and (2) economic anxiety due to globalization and illegal immigration. He blamed Republicans for them in the crowded 2016 Republican primary elections and blamed the Democrats for them in the 2016 General Election. These two fears are real. America became more diverse since Lyndon Johnson’s immigration reform in 1965 (The Immigration and Nationality Act of 1965, also known as the Hart–Celler Act, is a federal law passed by the 89th United States Congress and signed into law by President Lyndon B. Johnson. The law abolished the National Origins Formula, which had been the basis of U.S. immigration policy since the 1920s. The act removed de facto discrimination against Southern and Eastern Europeans, Asians, and other non-Northwestern European ethnic groups from American immigration policy.). White fertility and birth rates have fallen. After the end of the Cold War, since Clinton in 1993, economic globalization, loss of manufacturing, and the increase of services sector as a share of the American economy increasingly made economic life difficult for a majority of Americans. At issue is how to address these two anxieties.
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Chandrashekar Tamirisa Sep 26, 2020

The choice, for example, since NAFTA has become “American jobs or lower consumer prices?” It is high time America moved to a different model of global trade. The World Trade Organization and global trading rules need not merely reform but transformation because income distribution around the world, as Stephen Edwards also points out in his comment here, has become worse due to neoliberalism.
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Chandrashekar Tamirisa Sep 26, 2020

Will minimizing cross-border trade frictions down to near zero around the world (logical continuation of World Trade Organization’s agenda into the future until we achieve near-total free trade globally) lead to global convergence of living standards? Isn’t this what the authors of this article are implying?
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Chandrashekar Tamirisa Sep 26, 2020

World trade system, to correct “globalization and its discontents” as Joseph Stiglitz put it in his book (of course, Stiglitz borrowed the idea from Sigmund Freud’s book “Civilization and Its Discontents”) must be transformed to restrict trade to natural resources and agricultural products only. Multinational corporations should produce all goods and services within each nation’s borders for local consumption, employing local labor.
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stephan Edwards Sep 23, 2020

Problem is (and this won't win me any friends here I suppose) The 3rd world citizens who did I agree very well out of globalization DON'T VOTE in developed nations elections. The people who do vote in them in many, many cases did very, very badly out of it. What the authors miss is is it wasn't an unalloyed good for everybody. Yes workers in the 3rd world benefited but in the developed world the so called benefits were effectively restricted to a few. For the rest it was we're shipping your job to Mexico or China or wherever don't let the doorknob hit you on the way out. Thus we ended up with Trump and his equivalents. For the winners of the wealthy & professional classes are far out numbered by the losers of the working class & blue collar middle class, And even if Trump loses in November & it could go either way. Someone else will take up the banner against Globalization (And Win). Because the losers of Globalization have no reason to back the Professional classes or Davos set getting richer & richer, while they get poorer & poorer. I hate to break the news a system (Like say Globalization) with a few winners in a given country but massive amounts of losers was and is bound to fall either to a populist at the ballot box or in blood. Welcome to real world Globalization has been & is a zero sum game. Those jobs in the 3rd world came with the equal loss of jobs in the developed world. When the winners don't vote because they're in a different country. But the losers who are in electorate do how do the authors think the election is going to go? The losers aren't a majority (Yet) but they are surely a plurality. There is no appetite for any further globalization in the developed world among the Political class because the results are likely to unpleasant. Loss of place for sure, loss of life possibly. Because at certain point (And I think awfully close) the loser will abandon the ballot box for the gun and IED. Just my own opinions but having had 3 jobs shipped to the 3rd world and been forced to train my own H1B replacement at 2 more. I think I understand the losers a lot better authors or most of my fellow commenters do.
- Claudia Larsen Sep 24, 2020
  
  Thank You!
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知识分子正在扼杀融合吗？

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