国际货币基金组织能否防止这次危机?

华盛顿特区——直到不久前,国际货币基金组织的主要工作一直是为存在支付平衡问题的国家提供贷款。而今天,新兴国家越来越喜欢以累积巨额储备的方式“自我救赎”(并通过地区共享机制共享各国所拥有的储备)。因此,货币基金组织也必须做出相应的变化,加强监管方面的职能和监督会员国义务履行状况的能力,为金融稳定做出贡献。因此,货币基金组织未能向美国施压,解决导致目前金融危机的抵押贷款市场所存在的缺陷,这样显而易见的事实表明,国际货币基金组织还有许多工作需要去做。

事实上,在2006年对美国经济的年度回顾中,国际货币基金组织在评估放松信贷标准为美国抵押贷款市场所带来的风险方面显得格外温和。基金组织强调“面对抵押贷款还款额大幅增加的借款人仍然只是少数,而且他们大多集中在对房贷风险有着清醒认识的高收入家庭。”国际货币基金组织由此得出结论,那就是美国住房市场的信用和风险分配机制仍然保持着相对的高效。”而这种现状,该组织补充说,“应该能使人们感到安慰。”

与此相似,这一问题在国际货币基金组织的一份标志性出版物—— 《全球金融稳定报告》 (GFSR)中也丝毫没有提及。这份报告于2006年9月出版,也就是次贷危机全面爆发的前10个月。按照国际货币基金组织的观点,“成熟市场中主要的金融机构都比较健康,保持了一定的盈利能力和资本充足率”,而且“许多国家的金融部门都处在相对的强势,有能力应对未来经济循环的挑战和进一步的市场调整行为。”

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