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The Priority for the Social-Distancing Period

Apr 1, 2020 Michael Spence

With COVID-19 quickly spreading around the world, much of the attention has correctly centered on the need for social distancing to slow transmission of the virus. But limiting human interactions should be regarded as merely the first step in a more comprehensive targeted strategy.

MILAN – The coronavirus has a chokehold on the global economy. Like many friends and colleagues in China, I, too, have been locked down, along with the rest of Italy. Many of my fellow citizens in the United States are now in the same situation; others around the world will follow suit soon enough.

Because the virus can apparently be transmitted by those without symptoms, it has spread widely and under the radar of public-health authorities. To prevent health systems from being overwhelmed, aggressive social-distancing and self-isolation measures have been broadly implemented and accepted by the public. Whether they will slow the rate of transmission and limit the number of critical cases in the West remains to be seen.

Evidence that the epidemic has been curtailed or even contained in China and some other Asian economies is promising. These countries, however, relied not just on social distancing, but also on a vast array of tools that have not been extensively deployed in Europe and the US: widespread testing, contact tracing, mandated isolation, and so forth.

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Michael Spence

Writing for PS since 2008
130 Commentaries

Michael Spence, a Nobel laureate in economics, is Professor of Economics Emeritus and a former dean of the Graduate School of Business at Stanford University. He is Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, serves on the Academic Committee at Luohan Academy, and co-chairs the Advisory Board of the Asia Global Institute. He was chairman of the independent Commission on Growth and Development, an international body that from 2006-10 analyzed opportunities for global economic growth, and is the author of The Next Convergence: The Future of Economic Growth in a Multispeed World.

Flattening the COVID-19 Curve in Developing Countries
Rafael Rodriguez/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Flattening the COVID-19 Curve in Developing Countries

Ricardo Hausmann proposes four measures that would help the Global South fight the pandemic and mitigate its economic fallout.

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sarah Boctor Apr 2, 2020

But how are we going to put kids home and send their parents to work?
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Paul Daley Apr 1, 2020

Social distancing measures are most effective when they are applied to two groups, the contagious and the most vulnerable. In the United States, however, efforts to isolate the contagious faltered because of a lack of testing. The next priority should have been the most vulnerable, who, in the case of the coronavirus, were the oldest. They can be identified without testing, quarantines on them can be enforced with relative ease, and effective quarantines would prevent those most vulnerable individuals from clogging the medical system. However, in an effort to get ahead of the epidemic, the governments in New York and other heavily affected states skipped over this second priority group and went to an immediate general quarantine. Unfortunately, a general quarantine may not ultimately prove to be any more effective than one focussed only on the most vulnerable groups, but will, in any case, be far more damaging economically.

As quarantines are unwound, we will get a second chance to exploit the peculiarities of the coronavirus, by opening facilities to the youngest first while keeping the oldest on furlough and in quarantine. Governments too may have caught their breath by then and be in a better position to make crucial distinctions.
- P. Kamath Apr 2, 2020
  
  You say,”. Unfortunately, a general quarantine may not ultimately prove to be any more effective than one focussed only on the most vulnerable groups, but will, in any case, be far more damaging economically...”
  
  Pray tell us, give us some practical steps. What kind of methodology is that?
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