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Politics

Коронавирус Қытайдың бір партиялы режимін құлата алады ма?

Mar 4, 2020 Minxin Pei

Клермонт, Калифорния – Жаңа, COVID-19, коронавирустың өршуі Қытай Коммунистік партиясының (ҚКП) режиміне қауіп төндірді деп болжау күлкілі көрінуі мүмкін, әсіресе, Үкіметтің вирустың таралуын тежеу бойынша агрессивті күш-жігері жұмыс істеп тұрғанда. Бірақ Қытайдың қазіргі заман тарихындағы ең ірі қоғамдық денсаулық сақтау дағдарысының саяси салдарын бағаламау қате болар еді.

New York Times сараптамасына сәйкес кем дегенде 760 миллион қытайлықтар немесе ел халқының жартысынан астамы әр түрлі деңгейде тұрғын үй оқшаулауында болады. Бұның жекелеген және жалпылама салдары орасан - өз атасының өліміне куә болғаннан кейін бірнеше күн үйінде жалғыз қалған жас баланың жағдайынан бастап өте ауқымды экономикалық тоқырауға дейін. Бірақ бұл, шамасы, вирустың ошағы - Ухань қаласынан тыс жерлерде жаңа инфекциялар санының біртаңбалы сандарға дейін күрт төмендеуіне ықпал етті.

Тіпті Қытай көшбасшылары вирустың таралуын ұстап тұрудағы өз табыстарымен мақтанған кезде, олар стресс белгілерін көрсетіп қоюда. Басқа автократиялардағы элиталар сияқты, олар дағдарыс кезінде өздерін саяси жағынан өте осал сезінеді. Олар халықтың қорқынышы мен көңілі қалуы күшейген сайын, тіпті ең кіші олқылықтың өзі оларға қымбат түсіп және олардың билігін сынға алатын біршама қиындықтарға әкелуі мүмкін екенін біледі.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 6 Comments on this article

Luigi Luis Mar 8, 2020

Prof. Minxin Pei, writing from California, seems not fully aware of the extraordinary effort put in place by the citizens of Wuhan, Hubei and the Chinese people in general. Rather, I think that they can only be lauded by people like me, living in Asia. In this moment of crisis and distress, Prof. Minxin appears also not to have much of a word of praise for the millions of people that had they life overturned by the event and suffered very much, first of all doctors, nurses and medical staff at the frontline of what seemed an impossible "war" against an unknown virus. Since January, I followed daily the development the COVID19 crisis in China and I have only words of praise and admiration for the people in Wuhan and Hubei. And, contrary to Prof. Minxin, I am not interested at all in political thinking during these difficult times. From my modest point of view, being a witness of facts on the ground, I can only concord with the opinion that the W.H.O. has recently given, i.e we should applaud China's extraordinary effort in the combat against COVID19, as well as for the transparency and credibility of the Chinese authorities in dealing with this tremendous epidemic. Indeed, against COVID19 I stand with the people of Wuhan, Hubei and the Chinese. They are now also fighting in our name and for us.
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lt lee Mar 6, 2020

Many Chinese TV drama with Chinese dynastic as background, real or imagined, include episodes of epidemics. The protagonist could not be a real hero/heroine unless he or she could find a way to help the sick and the poor.

Just yesterday, New York Times had published an interview with Dr. Bruce Aylward, leader of the W.H.O. team that visited China to assess the country’s response to the coronavirus outbreak. Unless Dr. Aylward is grossly misinformed, I dare say the Chinese government is passing the test with flying color. Not that everyone is well. thousands had died. But the government does react quickly and inventively. More important, its call for action was echoed by the populace in general.
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Mar 6, 2020

This comment was removed by a moderator. Replies to this comment may also be deleted. Please note that we moderate comments to ensure the conversation remains topically relevant. We appreciate well-informed comments and welcome your criticism and insight. Please be civil and avoid name-calling and ad hominem remarks.
- lt lee Mar 6, 2020
  
  New act? Not at all.
  China would be around for at least 130 years. The esteemed professor could continue to provide uplifting commentaries for otherwise dispirited 'freedom figthers' for as long as he wants.
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j. von Hettlingen Mar 5, 2020

Minxin Pei wonders if the current Coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic would bring down China’s leadership. Based on the Chinese philosophical concept of the circumstances under which a ruler is allowed to govern, good rulers would be given the Mandate of Heaven.
According to the philosopher Mencius, when Heaven is unhappy with the emperor, who is despotic and unjust, his Mandate would be revoked. Or it could show its displeasure by raining down disasters such as floods, plagues, and swarms of locusts. These still widespread beliefs should concern China’s modern-day emperor, Xi Jinping, as the country grapples with a public health crisis it has not seen before.
The author says in the post-Mao era, the Chinese people and the Communist Party of China (CPC) “have adhered to an implicit social contract: the people tolerate the party’s political monopoly, as long as the party delivers sufficient economic progress and adequate governance.” He fears that the CPC’s “poor handling of the COVID-19 outbreak threatens this tacit pact. In this sense, China’s one-party regime may well be in a more precarious position than it realizes.”
Xi has been fighting “bloody battles” against China's enemies since coming to power in 2012. He has moved to make himself the strongest leader since Mao Zedong, ruling with an iron grip and having everything under control. He unleashed an anti-corruption campaign to purge rivals and presided over China’s political and military hierarchy, turning China into an Orwellian surveillance state. Now for the first time he is battling an enemy that is absolutely uncontrollable. While it is easy to lock up dissidents and activists, he can not detain the Coronavirus, or change it, like the way the Uighurs are treated.
As over 3,000 people have died since the outbreak began in December, Xi faces an unprecedented challenge to his leadership. He has been stripped of his air of invincibility, calling into question his “mandate of heaven.” The party’s botched response to the virus has tarnished his image, doing damage to public confidence in the leadership. It has also derailed his political and economic agenda by forcing the CPC – for the first time in decades – to postpone the annual National People's Congress meetings, where cadres rubber-stamp Xi’s plans for the year.
According to the author, “the most consequential political upshot of the COVID-19 outbreak may well be the erosion of support for the CPC among China’s urban middle class. Not only have their lives been severely disrupted by the epidemic and response; they have been made acutely aware of just how helpless they are under a regime that prizes secrecy and its own power over public health and welfare.” More concerning for Xi is the criticism that has burst into the open, notably with the death of whistleblower Doctor Li Wenliang.
Apparently Xi has “regained his aura as a dominant leader – not least thanks to CPC propagandists, who are working overtime to restore his image – the political fallout is likely to be serious. The profound uproar that marked those fleeting moments of relative cyber-freedom – the two weeks, from late January through early February, when censors lost their grip on the popular narrative – should be deeply worrying to the CPC.” No doubt this “freedom” will be sorely missed, once life gets back to normal, and people would ask themselves questions about their future under this regime.
The shutdown of swaths of the country takes a toll on economic growth, which will corrode the CPC’s legitimacy among ordinary Chinese. At some point after the virus subsides, Chinese citizens and the rest of the world will likely demand a full accounting of what transpired. Still, the Coronavirus crisis is unlikely to trigger a fundamental change in the way that Xi does business, or to precipitate a return to a more collective style of leadership, which disappeared when he was reappointed as president with no term limit in 2018.
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Godfree Roberts Mar 4, 2020

Every multilateral public health body that has studied the outbreak has praised the timeliness, thoroughness, and effectiveness of China’s response. Don’t be fooled by our media’s selective use of outbursts on Chinese social media. (This may be seen as much a triumph for China as a failure for its principal critic, the US). China’s government was, and remains, the most trusted on earth.

The Chinese Communist Party took half the time to intervene in this outbreak that the American Capitalist Party took to intervene in the its home-brewed H1N1 outbreak, yet the American Capitalist Party survived just fine. See the two timelines here: https://youtu.be/rJiKxV4rTCQ
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Peter McLoughlin Mar 4, 2020

Prospect of the Chinese government’s fall should not be seen as serendipitous. On the contrary, its risks the pattern of history: another world war.
https://www.ghostsofhistory.wordpress.com/
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