Proč padají komoditní ceny?

CAMBRIDGE – Ceny ropy se od června propadly o 40 % – což je dobrá zpráva pro země dovážející ropu, ale špatná zpráva pro Rusko, Venezuelu, Nigérii a další vývozce ropy. Někteří tento propad cen připisují americkému boomu břidlicové energie. Jiní poukazují na neúspěch OPEC domluvit se na omezení dodávek.

To ale není celý příběh. Klesly i ceny železné rudy. Nižší jsou také ceny zlata, stříbra a platiny. Totéž platí pro ceny cukru, bavlny a sojových bobů. Vlastně se od první půle roku snížila většina dolarových komoditních cen. Ač cenu každé komodity ovlivňuje řada sektorově specifických faktorů, skutečnost, že propad je tak široce založený, – jak už to s velkými cenovými výkyvy bývá – poukazuje na působení makroekonomických činitelů.

Proč tedy makroekonomické faktory mohou stlačovat komoditní ceny? Možná jde o deflaci. Přestože je ale inflace velice nízká, a v několika zemích dokonce záporná, musí docházet ještě k něčemu dalšímu, protože komoditní ceny padají oproti celkové hladině cen. Jinými slovy padají reálné komoditní ceny.

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