Valores Chineses?

BERLIM – Não podem restar hoje muitas dúvidas de que a República Popular da China dominará o mundo do século vinte e um. O rápido crescimento económico do país, o seu potencial estratégico, o imenso mercado interno, e um enorme investimento em infraestruturas, educação, e investigação e desenvolvimento, bem como um impressionante desenvolvimento militar, farão com que isso aconteça. Isto significa que, em termos políticos e económicos, estamos a entrar num século da Ásia do Leste e do Sudeste.

Não nos esqueçamos, o resultado para o mundo teria sido muito pior se a ascensão da China tivesse falhado. Mas com que se parecerá este mundo? Conseguimos prever o poder que moldará a sua geopolítica, mas que valores estarão na base do exercício desse poder?

A política oficial das “Quatro Modernizações” (industrial, agrícola, militar e científico-tecnológica) que tem sustentado a ascensão da China desde o fim da década de 1970 não tem conseguido responder a essa questão, porque a “quinta modernização” – a emergência da democracia e do primado do direito – ainda está a faltar. Na verdade, a modernização política enfrenta uma oposição enorme do Partido Comunista Chinês, que não tem interesse em entregar o monopólio do poder. Além disso, a transição para um sistema pluralista que fomente, em vez de suprimir, o conflito político, seria certamente arriscada, embora o risco cresça quanto mais persista a regra do partido único (e a corrupção endémica que a acompanha).

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