Las esclusas financieras de China

NUEVA YORK – En momentos que la economía de China comienza a desacelerarse tras décadas de espectacular crecimiento, su gobierno se verá cada vez más expuesto a los cantos de sirena de la liberalización de las cuentas de capitales. Inicialmente esta opción podría parecer atractiva, en particular si se considera el deseo del gobierno chino de internacionalizar el renminbi. Pero las apariencias pueden resultar engañosas.

Un nuevo informe plantea que las autoridades chinas deberían ser escépticas acerca de la liberalización de las cuentas de capitales. Recogiendo lecciones de experiencias recientes de otros países emergentes, el informe concluye que China debería adoptar un enfoque cauteloso y muy gradual si va a exponer su economía a los vaivenes de los flujos de capital globales.

El elemento en común que se puede ver en la historia reciente de las economías emergentes (comenzando en América Latina y pasando por Asia del Este y Europa Central y del Este) es que los flujos de capital son fuertemente procíclicos y constituyen la mayor causa específica de inestabilidad financiera. Asociada con la liberalización, la inestabilidad financiera nacional también afecta mucho el desempeño económico, así como la falta de control sobre los intermediarios financieros no bancarios, problema que ahora China está comenzando a enfrentar a medida que crece la contribución al aumento del crédito del sector bancario “paralelo”.

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