Las esclusas financieras de China

NUEVA YORK – En momentos que la economía de China comienza a desacelerarse tras décadas de espectacular crecimiento, su gobierno se verá cada vez más expuesto a los cantos de sirena de la liberalización de las cuentas de capitales. Inicialmente esta opción podría parecer atractiva, en particular si se considera el deseo del gobierno chino de internacionalizar el renminbi. Pero las apariencias pueden resultar engañosas.

Un nuevo informe plantea que las autoridades chinas deberían ser escépticas acerca de la liberalización de las cuentas de capitales. Recogiendo lecciones de experiencias recientes de otros países emergentes, el informe concluye que China debería adoptar un enfoque cauteloso y muy gradual si va a exponer su economía a los vaivenes de los flujos de capital globales.

El elemento en común que se puede ver en la historia reciente de las economías emergentes (comenzando en América Latina y pasando por Asia del Este y Europa Central y del Este) es que los flujos de capital son fuertemente procíclicos y constituyen la mayor causa específica de inestabilidad financiera. Asociada con la liberalización, la inestabilidad financiera nacional también afecta mucho el desempeño económico, así como la falta de control sobre los intermediarios financieros no bancarios, problema que ahora China está comenzando a enfrentar a medida que crece la contribución al aumento del crédito del sector bancario “paralelo”.

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/7KCe3Jz/es;
  1. An employee works at a chemical fiber weaving company VCG/Getty Images

    China in the Lead?

    For four decades, China has achieved unprecedented economic growth under a centralized, authoritarian political system, far outpacing growth in the Western liberal democracies. So, is Chinese President Xi Jinping right to double down on authoritarianism, and is the “China model” truly a viable rival to Western-style democratic capitalism?

  2. The assembly line at Ford Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

    Whither the Multilateral Trading System?

    The global economy today is dominated by three major players – China, the EU, and the US – with roughly equal trading volumes and limited incentive to fight for the rules-based global trading system. With cooperation unlikely, the world should prepare itself for the erosion of the World Trade Organization.

  3. Donald Trump Saul Loeb/Getty Images

    The Globalization of Our Discontent

    Globalization, which was supposed to benefit developed and developing countries alike, is now reviled almost everywhere, as the political backlash in Europe and the US has shown. The challenge is to minimize the risk that the backlash will intensify, and that starts by understanding – and avoiding – past mistakes.

  4. A general view of the Corn Market in the City of Manchester Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

    A Better British Story

    Despite all of the doom and gloom over the United Kingdom's impending withdrawal from the European Union, key manufacturing indicators are at their highest levels in four years, and the mood for investment may be improving. While parts of the UK are certainly weakening economically, others may finally be overcoming longstanding challenges.

  5. UK supermarket Waring Abbott/Getty Images

    The UK’s Multilateral Trade Future

    With Brexit looming, the UK has no choice but to redesign its future trading relationships. As a major producer of sophisticated components, its long-term trade strategy should focus on gaining deep and unfettered access to integrated cross-border supply chains – and that means adopting a multilateral approach.

  6. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now