United States 20-dollar bill. lincolnblues/Flickr

La economía china y la política de la Fed

CAMBRIDGE – El discurso de Janet Yellen el pasado 24 de septiembre en la Universidad de Massachusetts fue una clara señal de que ella y la mayoría de los miembros de Comité Federal de Mercado Abierto (FOMC, por sus siglas en inglés) de la Reserva Federal tienen la intención de elevar la tasas de interés de corto plazo para fines de 2015. De particular importancia fue el hecho de que incluyera explícitamente su propio punto de vista, a diferencia de cuando habló a nombre de todo el FMOC tras su reunión de septiembre. Sin embargo, dado el historial reciente de la Fed de modificar sus posturas en cuanto a políticas, los mercados siguen mostrándose escépticos acerca de la probabilidad de un alza de aquí a fin de año.

La Fed ha estado diciendo durante varios meses que elevaría la tasa de financiación federal cuando el mercado laboral se acercara al pleno empleo y los miembros del FOMC previeran que la inflación anual llegaría al 2%. Pero, aunque ambas condiciones se cumplieron a principios de septiembre, el FMOC decidió no cambiar la tasa, explicando que le preocupaban las condiciones económicas globales y, en especial, lo que fuera ocurriendo en China.

Quedé poco convencido. Con el paso de los meses me ido afianzando en la opinión de que la Fed debería comenzar a restringir su política monetaria para reducir los riesgos de inestabilidad financiera por el comportamiento de los inversionistas y acreedores en respuesta al largo periodo de tasas de interés excepcionalmente bajas desde la crisis financiera de 2008. Los acontecimientos de China no justifican seguir retrasando estas medidas.

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