pei94_ NOEL CELISAFP via Getty Images_xi economy

Economics

Оптимистичная болтовня Китая по поводу роста экономики

Jan 24, 2023 Minxin Pei

КЛЕРМОНТ (КАЛИФОРНИЯ, США) – Китайское правительство вновь полюбило экономический рост. Хаотично отменив политику нулевого Covid, что уже привело (как минимум) к десяткам тысяч смертей, руководство страны теперь с жаром заявляет о своей вечной верности уверенным темпам экономического роста. Однако на одних лишь словах Китай далеко не уедет.

В декабре на Центральной рабочей конференции по экономике (на этом ежегодном заседании высшее руководство Коммунистической партии Китая определяет повестку экономической политики на следующий год) рост экономики был объявлен важнейшим экономическим приоритетом правительства в 2023 году. В последующие недели общество наблюдало за спектаклем, который не видело уже много лет: губернаторы провинций старались изо всех сил, повторяя заявления об ориентации КПК на экономический рост и успокаивая нервничающих частных инвесторов и предпринимателей.

Политическая мотивация такого сдвига очевидна: КПК надеется вернуть себе поддержку общества, поскольку народное недовольство драконовскими ограничениями политики нулевого Covid теперь сменилось разочарованием из-за неумелой отмены этой политики. Однако все эти заявления будут мало что значить, если правительство не подтвердит действиями свою риторику содействия экономическому росту.

To continue reading, register now.

Subscribe now for unlimited access to everything PS has to offer.

As a registered user, you can enjoy more PS content every month – for free.

Already have an account? Log in

WINTER SALE: Save 25% on a new PS subscription

For a limited time, you can gain greater access to Project Syndicate – including every commentary and our entire On Point suite of subscriber-exclusive content – starting at less than $6 per month.

Subscribe Now

new comment has been posted. new comments have been posted.

0 Comments on this paragraph, 2 Comments on this article

Edward H.C Graydon Jan 30, 2023

To try and argue or contemplate brain storming possible weaknesses in China or more specifically the current leader remember that no amount of wishful thinking will ever bring back manufacturing to North America. China because it has been designated the worlds manufacturing headquarters based on conditions that simulate slave labour it has caused huge environmental conditions that seem almost apocalyptic as when you cannot drink the water and the soot and dust from manufacturing fill the air while North Americans fight to try and save wet lands ,forests ,wildlife and water while belittling China behind its back for the position and environment it is in ,I personally don’t believe China is going backwards and that economic growth within China moving forward is an absolute as they have cornered the market and are accepting of the negative environmental side effects of capitalism.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
j. von Hettlingen Jan 29, 2023

Xi Jinping's obsession with total control has weakened the economic foundations on which China’s strength relied to become a global power. Since securing an unprecedented third term last October he put security before economic growth, surrounding himself with loyalists.

As growth for 2022 will not hit the target of around 5.5%, Xi is eager to focus on the economy again. The truth is that China’s decades-long impressive growth is over. It had over the past 10-15 years relied too heavily on construction and investment to reach its ambitious annual targets. Billions were spent on building the world's largest network of high-speed railways, most of the world's 10 longest bridges, the world's busiest ports and airports, and high-rises for tens of million people that become empty. As a result of eye-watering debt levels, resources are drying up and a slowdown is inevitable.

For long Xi was convinced that his zero-Covid approach was the right policy. Instead it had turned a health crisis into an economic one: Growth at historic lows, record-high youth unemployment, a property crisis and sky-rocketing debts etc. He is still hellbent on overtaking the US as the world’s largest economy. In order to sustain high growth, a “credible reform” agenda is necessary. The question is whether he will rethink the economic model that had worked for decades.

In 1978 Deng Xiaoping, China forged economic reforms, allowing more private enterprise and ownership, opening the economy to foreign trade and investment and encouraging savings, after decades of state ownership and central planning under Mao Zedong that left China poor and undeveloped, with only basic manufacturing and dire infrastructure.

The author says Xi has in recent years embraced “orthodox communist ideology and sought to increase the Party’s dominance over society and the economy.” While asserting “tighter social control,” the Communist Party makes inroads into private firms and demands a role to play. The crackdown on tech and other industries has killed the entrepreneurial drive that made China a tech power, destroying jobs that used to attract its bright and innovative people.

On the global stage, geopolitical tensions as a result of Xi’s ambition to invade Taiwan and provocations against China’s most important trading partners have damaged business confidence. Rising interest rates and raw material costs have an impact on Chinese exports at a moment when Beijing is losing its place as the world’s centre of supply chains, since foreign companies look for manufacturing hubs elsewhere.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.

https://prosyn.org/ee8m28oru

Оптимистичная болтовня Китая по поводу роста экономики

WINTER SALE: Save 25% on a new PS subscription

New Comment

Contact us

Log in/Register

Оптимистичная болтовня Китая по поводу роста экономики

WINTER SALE: Save 25% on a new PS subscription

Edit Newsletter Preferences

Set up Notification