china stock market crash Zhengyi Xie/ZumaPress

错误的中国警报

马尼拉—一些专家说,中国的经济奇迹——让3亿人摆脱贫困并改变了世界地缘政治重心——正在走向混乱的终局。根据这一观点,剧烈动荡的股市和人民币“意外”贬值便是经济崩溃即将到来的信号,高风险投资和高水平政府债务给几十年来的“涡轮增压式”产出增长踩了刹车。

幸运的是,没有理由表明应该相信这些末日预言,也没有理由相信最近屡屡成为新闻焦点的市场轮动比短期波动更严重。毕竟,股市波动只是实体经济表现的拙劣预测指标。

事实上,2010—2013年,中国GDP增长强劲,股价也是下跌的。更近一点,2015年上半年股价狂飙突进,但经济减速已经开始。美国经济学家保罗·萨缪尔森(Paul Samuelson)有一句名言,“股市九次预警最近的五次衰退。”

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