Economics

错误的中国警报

Sep 4, 2015 Shang-Jin Wei

马尼拉—一些专家说，中国的经济奇迹——让3亿人摆脱贫困并改变了世界地缘政治重心——正在走向混乱的终局。根据这一观点，剧烈动荡的股市和人民币“意外”贬值便是经济崩溃即将到来的信号，高风险投资和高水平政府债务给几十年来的“涡轮增压式”产出增长踩了刹车。

幸运的是，没有理由表明应该相信这些末日预言，也没有理由相信最近屡屡成为新闻焦点的市场轮动比短期波动更严重。毕竟，股市波动只是实体经济表现的拙劣预测指标。

事实上，2010—2013年，中国GDP增长强劲，股价也是下跌的。更近一点，2015年上半年股价狂飙突进，但经济减速已经开始。美国经济学家保罗·萨缪尔森（Paul Samuelson）有一句名言，“股市九次预警最近的五次衰退。”

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 4 Comments on this article

venze chern Sep 7, 2015

A fairly objective discussion. A temporary China's stock plunge after reaching its peak too fast should not cause any unnecessary alarm. So is the minor 3% drop of yuan.
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M A J Jeyaseelan Sep 5, 2015

I believe that this article provides a fairly accurate analysis of the fundamental strengths of the Chinese economy.

In my view, the fundamental strength of the Chinese economy is its real economy. The Chinese government has always focused on keeping the wheels of its real economy moving and retaining its global competitiveness by helping to lower costs of production in manufacturing in all possible ways.

I am glad that that Chinese stock market crashed. Stock markets are no good places for people to invest their savings. Rise in speculative investments invariably locks away invest-able resources in speculative spirals and dries up the flow of resources to the real economy.

I am sure that the Chinese government now realises the futility of perking up the speculative stock markets. Speculative markets not only create short term volatility but also result in long drawn recessions.

There is no need for the emerging economies to follow the failed policies of free markets and floating exchange rates unless they want to send their economies also on roller coaster rides.

Well contrived regulatory frameworks, which help strengthen global competitiveness and at the same time expand domestic markets will be the key to the continued success of emerging economies.
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Bart Van de Ven Sep 5, 2015

I think Mr Wei underestates the impact of investments. Investment share of Chinese GDP today is a whopping 45%. Knowing that falling investments usually trigger recessions I think we should pay more attention to the current unsustainable high level of investments in China.
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Walter Gingery Sep 4, 2015

Thus the optimistic view.

For an alternative view, one that emphasizes the importance of allocating debt, see Michael Pettis' latest post.
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