china stock market crash Zhengyi Xie/ZumaPress

انذار خاطىء عن الصين

مانيلا- لقد ذكر بعض النقاد بإن المعجزة الاقتصادية الصينية –وهي معجزة انقذت 300 مليون شخص من براثن الفقر وحولت مركز الثقل الجيوسياسي للعالم- قد وصلت الى نهايتها العاصفة وطبقا لهولاء فإن سوق الاسهم المتقلب والانخفاض "المفاجىء"للعملة الصينية هي اشارات على الانهيار الاقتصادي الوشيك وبإن الاستثمارات عالية المخاطر والمستويات العالية من الدين الحكومي ادت الى وقف عقدين من النمو السريع للناتج.

لحسن الحظ ليس هناك سبب وجيه لتصديق مثل هذه التوقعات المخيفة فتقلبات السوق والتي كانت تحرك عناوين الاخبار مؤخرا لم تكن اكثر من تقلبات قصيرة المدى وفي واقع الامر فإن حركة اسعار الاسهم هي مؤشر ضعيف على الاداء الحقيقي للاقتصاد .

 عندما كان الناتج المحلي الاجمالي الصيني ينمو بقوة خلال الفترة من 2010 الى 2013 كانت اسعار الاسهم في هبوط وفي الاونة الاخيرة عندما بدأت اسعار الاسهم بالارتفاع الشديد خلال النصف الاول من 2015 كان تباطؤ الاقتصاد قد بدأ فعلا وكما ذكر الاقتصادي الامريكي بول سامويلسون في قوله الشهير :" لقد تنبأ سوق الاسهم بتسع من اخر خمس حالات ركود ".

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