Kiosk salesman in China

Chinas makroökonomische Disparität

NEW HAVEN – Strukturwandel und Neuausrichtung sind gewaltige Unterfangen für jede Volkswirtschaft. China konzentriert sich seit fünf Jahren auf diese Ziele. Das Land strebt danach, sein leistungsstarkes, aber unausgewogenes, überwiegend auf Exporten und Investitionen beruhendes Wachstumsmodell in eines zu verwandeln, das überwiegend durch den Konsum angetrieben wird. Ein Erfolg muss her, wenn China die gefürchtete „Falle des mittleren Einkommens“ vermeiden will – einen Wirtschaftsabschwung, den fast alle wachstumsstarken Entwicklungsländer erleben, wenn sie Einkommensschwellen erreichen, die mit der in China heute vergleichbar sind.

Die Ergebnisse sind uneinheitlich. China war überaus erfolgreich bei seinen anfänglichen Bemühungen, die Branchenstruktur seiner Volkswirtschaft vom produzierenden Gewerbe auf Dienstleistungen umzustellen (die seit langem als Grundlage moderner Konsumgesellschaften gelten). Bei der Ankurbelung des privaten Konsums aber hat es deutlich weniger Fortschritte gemacht. China hat nun keine andere Wahl, als diese Disparität direkt in Angriff zu nehmen.

Die Entwicklung des chinesischen Dienstleistungssektors war insbesondere in den letzten Jahren beeindruckend. Der Anteil des Sektors am BIP wuchs laut offiziellen Statistiken von 44% im Jahr 2010 auf 51,6% in den ersten drei Quartalen des Jahres 2015. Das ist fast doppelt so schnell wie der Anstieg um vier Prozentpunkte, der im in Kürze auslaufenden 12. Fünf-Jahres-Plan ursprünglich vorgesehen war.

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