Kiosk salesman in China

中国的宏观分化

纽黑文—结构变化和再平衡对于任何经济体来说都是一项令人望而生畏的事业。中国专注于这些目标已有五年——试图将强大但失衡的、主要基于出口和投资的模式转变为日益由其消费者驱动的模式。如果中国想要避免可怕的“中等收入陷阱”——大部分高速增长发展中经济体在收入达到与今天的中国相当的阈值水平时都曾经历过这一陷阱——就必须取得成功。

结果有好有坏。中国一开始的努力——将经济结构从制造业转向长期被视为现代消费社会基础的服务业十分成功。但在刺激私人消费方面进步十分缓慢。如今,中国别无选择,必须纠正这一分化。

中国服务业表现在近几年中令人印象深刻,据官方数据,其占GDP之比从2010年的44%提高到2015年前三季度的51.6%。其比重增长比即将结束的十二五规划一开始所构想的四个百分点高出近一倍。

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