Deflazione importata: un vantaggio per la Cina

PECHINO – Con l’aumento dell’inflazione, e delle aspettative inflazionistiche, in Cina, come si può riuscire a mantenere la stabilità senza minacciare il boom di crescita del paese? Conciliare la crescita con la lotta all’inflazione non è impossibile, ma richiede il superamento da parte del governo del suo ben radicato atteggiamento sospettoso verso un’apertura dei mercati cinesi alle importazioni.

La Banca Mondiale ha previsto una percentuale di crescita per l’economia mondiale pari al 3,5%, così come gran parte degli esperti hanno previsto una crescita simile anche per gli Stati Uniti. Ne risulta che la domanda esterna di esportazioni cinesi sarà consistente, mentre il differenziale dei tassi di interesse tra la Cina e le economie mondiali avanzate continua a comportare un afflusso consistente di capitale. Pertanto, anche quest’anno, la Cina continuerà ad accumulare ampie riserve di valuta straniera.

Le autorità cinesi hanno, di conseguenza, messo in campo una combinazione di strumenti per stabilizzare i prezzi interni. Dato che le riserve obbligatorie delle banche si trovano già al 19,5% e hanno un margine limitato di aumento, i tassi di interesse, da parte loro, continueranno, molto probabilmente, a crescere.

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