Paul Lachine

El punto de inflexión de China

NEW HAVEN – A comienzos de marzo, el Congreso Nacional Popular de China aprobará su Duodécimo Plan Quinquenal, que podría pasar a la Historia como uno de las más audaces iniciativas estratégicas chinas.

Esencialmente, cambiará el carácter del modelo económico de China, al pasar de la estructura de los treinta últimos años, basada en la exportación y la inversión, a una modalidad de crecimiento impulsado por los consumidores chinos. Dicho cambio tendrá consecuencias profundas para China, para el resto de Asia y, más en general, para la economía mundial.

Como el Quinto Plan Quinquenal, que preparó el terreno para las “reformas y apertura” de finales del decenio de 1970, y el Noveno Plan Quinquenal, que desencadenó la apertura al mercado de las empresas de propiedad estatal a mediados del decenio de 1990, el próximo Plan obligará a China a revisar los fundamentos de los valores esenciales de su economía. El Primer Ministro, Wen Jiabao, preparó el terreno hace cuatro años, cuando formuló por primera vez la paradoja de los “Cuatro Fallos”: una economía cuya fuerza en la superficie ocultaba una estructura que era cada vez más “inestable, desequilibrada, descoordinada y, en última instancia, insostenible”.

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