La prochaine transformation de la Chine

HONG KONG – Durant trois décennies de circonstances économiques globales favorables, la Chine s’est forgée un système de production intégré sans précédent en envergure et en complexité. Mais ses dirigeants sont aujourd’hui confrontés à un triple défi avec la crise de la dette européenne, la mollesse de la reprise aux Etats-Unis, et un ralentissement de la croissance séculaire de l’économie chinoise. Ces trois défis sont interconnectés, et des erreurs de la part de l’un de ces trois acteurs pourraient replonger l’économie globale dans la récession.

Evaluer les risques pour la Chine et le monde et déterminer les options possibles implique de comprendre le système de production chinois « Made in le monde », lequel repose sur quatre piliers distincts mais interdépendants.

Le premier de ces piliers, cette « usine du monde » basée en Chine, a été principalement bâti par les sociétés multinationales étrangères et leurs fournisseurs et sous-traitants associés, grâce à des chaines de production et de montage animées par une main d’œuvre abondante assumées par des petites et moyennes entreprises (PME) ayant un accès direct aux marchés internationaux par le biais d’un ensemble complexe de contrats. Après de modestes débuts dans les zones côtières et les zones économiques spéciales, la chaine de production de « l’usine du monde » s’est ensuite étendue à toute la Chine, produisant toutes sortes de produits, des animaux en peluche aux iPads.

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