中国汇率政策新思维

麻省剑桥——今后几个月,中国政府会让人民币对美元升值的步伐加快,大大超过最近一年的速度。在金融危机期间,该汇率实际上被冻结,但自2010年夏天以来又有所上升。近12个月,人民币对其主要参考货币——美元升值了6%。

人民币兑美元加速升值,将压缩中国的出口,扩大其进口,同时给其他亚洲国家提供了选择余地——令本币升值或从中国手中夺取更大的出口份额。中国这么做,可以安抚邻国,但势必会抑制本国产业。为什么中国政府要让人民币加速升值呢?

它有两个主要理由:减少资产风险、抑制国内通胀。

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