Pedro Molina

中国经济不会硬着陆

发自纽黑文——中国的经济增长正在放缓。这对一个依靠出口带动又遭遇全球需求萎缩的经济体来说毫不稀奇。但中国即将面对的经济放缓其实是可控并恰逢其时的,因此那些“硬着陆”的恐惧也是过分夸张了。

毫无疑问,各项经济数据都有所走低。采购经理人指数目前已经临近“50”大关,而这个点数一直以来都是体现生产扩张与收缩的分界点。而其他一系列重要指数——从消费者预期,货币供应,股市到钢铁产量,工业产品销售以及新开工项目数量——也出现了类似的下行趋势,

但这可不是2008年。当时全球商业都陷入崩溃,世界贸易总额很可能比2009年下跌10.7%——堪称自1930年代以来最严重的紧缩。结果中国的出口从2008年7月的26%年增长率急转直下,到2009年2月出现了27%的下滑。在此影响下GDP增长率也只剩一位数且数字较小——以中国标准来说就算是停止增长了。同时在出口经济占主导的广东省有超过2000万农民工失业。到了2008年年末,中国几乎已经濒临全面衰退的边缘。

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