Pedro Molina

中国经济不会硬着陆

发自纽黑文——中国的经济增长正在放缓。这对一个依靠出口带动又遭遇全球需求萎缩的经济体来说毫不稀奇。但中国即将面对的经济放缓其实是可控并恰逢其时的,因此那些“硬着陆”的恐惧也是过分夸张了。

毫无疑问,各项经济数据都有所走低。采购经理人指数目前已经临近“50”大关,而这个点数一直以来都是体现生产扩张与收缩的分界点。而其他一系列重要指数——从消费者预期,货币供应,股市到钢铁产量,工业产品销售以及新开工项目数量——也出现了类似的下行趋势,

但这可不是2008年。当时全球商业都陷入崩溃,世界贸易总额很可能比2009年下跌10.7%——堪称自1930年代以来最严重的紧缩。结果中国的出口从2008年7月的26%年增长率急转直下,到2009年2月出现了27%的下滑。在此影响下GDP增长率也只剩一位数且数字较小——以中国标准来说就算是停止增长了。同时在出口经济占主导的广东省有超过2000万农民工失业。到了2008年年末,中国几乎已经濒临全面衰退的边缘。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/A8SRcM1/zh;
  1. Sean Gallup/Getty Images

    Angela Merkel’s Endgame?

    The collapse of coalition negotiations has left German Chancellor Angela Merkel facing a stark choice between forming a minority government or calling for a new election. But would a minority government necessarily be as bad as Germans have traditionally thought?

  2. Trump Trade speech Bill Pugliano/Getty Images .

    Preparing for the Trump Trade Wars

    In the first 11 months of his presidency, Donald Trump has failed to back up his words – or tweets – with action on a variety of fronts. But the rest of the world's governments, and particularly those in Asia and Europe, would be mistaken to assume that he won't follow through on his promised "America First" trade agenda.

  3. A GrabBike rider uses his mobile phone Bay Ismoyo/Getty Images

    The Platform Economy

    While developed countries in Europe, North America, and Asia are rapidly aging, emerging economies are predominantly youthful. Nigerian, Indonesian, and Vietnamese young people will shape global work trends at an increasingly rapid pace, bringing to bear their experience in dynamic informal markets on a tech-enabled gig economy.

  4. Trump Mario Tama/Getty Images

    Profiles in Discouragement

    One day, the United States will turn the page on Donald Trump. But, as Americans prepare to observe their Thanksgiving holiday, they should reflect that their country's culture and global standing will never recover fully from the wounds that his presidency is inflicting on them.

  5. Mugabe kisses Grace JEKESAI NJIKIZANA/AFP/Getty Images

    How Women Shape Coups

    In Zimbabwe, as in all coups, much behind-the-scenes plotting continues to take place in the aftermath of the military's overthrow of President Robert Mugabe. But who the eventual winners and losers are may depend, among other things, on the gender of the plotters.

  6. Oil barrels Ahmad Al-Rubaye/Getty Images

    The Abnormality of Oil

    At the 2017 Abu Dhabi Petroleum Exhibition and Conference, the consensus among industry executives was that oil prices will still be around $60 per barrel in November 2018. But there is evidence to suggest that the uptick in global growth and developments in Saudi Arabia will push the price as high as $80 in the meantime.

  7. Israeli soldier Menahem Kahana/Getty Images

    The Saudi Prince’s Dangerous War Games

    Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is working hard to consolidate power and establish his country as the Middle East’s only hegemon. But his efforts – which include an attempt to trigger a war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon – increasingly look like the work of an immature gambler.