Paul Lachine

商品价格下跌的全球影响

纽约—长达十年的商品价格繁荣已经进入了尾声,对全球GDP增长产生了巨大影响。而尽管经济运行模式不会简单复制自己,但始自2000年代初的世界商品超级周期上升阶段的结束给发展中国家继续快速赶超发达国家收入水平的前景蒙上了一层阴影。

在截至7月的一年中,《经济学人》商品价格指数下跌了16.5%(按美元计价,若按欧元计价,则跌幅为22.4%),其中金属价格自2011年初见顶以来已经下跌了两年多。粮食价格表现出了更强的抗跌力,但在过去的一年中,粮食价格跌幅比其他商品更深。只有石油价格仍维持高位(尽管波动巨大),毫无疑问这是由中东复杂的政治事件导致的。

从历史上看,这并不奇怪,我们的商品超级周期研究显示了这一点。自19世纪末以来,商品价格经历了三次长期周期和第四长周期的上升阶段,其主要推动力是全球需求。前两次周期相对较长(接近四十年),但第三个周期较短(28年)。

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