Pedro Molina

Chinas zunehmende Wachstumsrisiken

PEKING: Wenn für China alles gut läuft, wird es die USA bis 2021 als weltgrößte Volkswirtschaft ablösen (in aktuellen Dollar berechnet; real gesehen noch schneller). Sein Pro-Kopf-Einkommen wird jenes der heutigen Länder mit hohem Einkommen aus der zweiten Reihe erreichen. Doch trotz ihres anhaltenden Wachstums drohen der chinesischen Volkswirtschaft im kommenden Jahrzehnt erhebliche Risiken.

Unmittelbare Gefahr geht von der anhaltenden Stagnation, oder Rezession, in Europa aus. Im vergangenen Jahrzehnt trug das Exportwachstum mit etwa einem Drittel zum chinesischen Gesamtwachstum bei, und rund ein Drittel der chinesischen Exporte ging in die Europäische Union. Falls sich die Lage in Europa weiter verschlechtert, wird Chinas Wirtschaftswachstum in Mitleidenschaft gezogen werden.

Eine übermäßige Verschärfung der makroökonomischen Politik auf nationaler Ebene, insbesondere in Bezug auf den Immobilienmarkt, könnte das Risiko eines Abschwungs noch verstärken; schon jetzt fallen aufgrund strenger Maßnahmen der Regierung in ganz China die Häuserpreise. Tatsächlich ähnelt die Lage jener der asiatischen Finanzkrise des Jahres 1997. Vor Ausbruch dieser Krise hatte China mehrere Jahre lang die Inflation bekämpft und schien auf eine weiche Landung zuzusteuern. Doch die Kombination aus Krise und Sparmaßnahmen verurteilte China zu einer mehrjährigen Deflation und beträchtlich geringerem Wachstum.

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