Paul Lachine

El plan quinquenal de China y los tipos de interés mundiales

CAMBRIDGE – El nuevo plan quinquenal de China tendrá importantes consecuencias para la economía mundial. Su característica principal es el cambio de la política oficial: de procurar el máximo crecimiento del PIB a aumentar el consumo y el nivel de vida medio de los trabajadores. Aunque dicho cambio se debe a consideraciones chinas internas, podría tener importantes repercusiones en las corrientes de capitales y los tipos de interés mundiales.

Naturalmente, la alta tasa de crecimiento del PIB de China en el último decenio ha aumentado los ingresos reales de centenares de millones de chinos, en particular los que viven en zonas urbanas o cercanas a ellas, y los fondos que los trabajadores urbanos envían a sus familiares que siguen formando parte del sector agrario han contribuido a aumentar también su nivel de vida.

Pero los salarios y el consumo reales han aumentado más despacio que el PIB total de China. Gran parte de los ingresos resultantes del aumento del PIB fueron a las grandes empresas de propiedad estatal, lo que intensificó su poder monopolístico, y un porcentaje considerable de la producción de China va destinada al extranjero, y la diferencia entre las exportaciones y las importaciones es suficiente para crear un superávit por cuenta corriente de más de 350.000 millones de dólares en el pasado año.

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