كسر إدمان الاستثمار في الصين

بكين ــ يبدو أن نموذج النمو الاقتصادي في الصين بدأ يفقد زخمه. فوفقاً للبنك الدولي، كان الاستثمار في الأعوام الثلاثين التي أعقبت الإصلاح الاقتصادي الذي بدأه دينج شياو بنج يشكل نحو ست إلى ثماني نقاط مئوية من متوسط المعدل السنوي لنمو الاقتصاد (9,8%)، في حين أسهم تحسن الإنتاجية بنحو نقطتين إلى أربع نقاط مئوية فقط. وفي مواجهة الطلب الخارجي الراكد، والاستهلاك المحلي الضعيف، وارتفاع تكاليف العمل، وانخفاض الإنتاجية، فإن الصين تعتمد بشكل مكثف على الاستثمار لدفع النمو الاقتصادي.

وبرغم أن هذا النموذج غير قابل للاستمرار، فإن إفراط الصين في الاعتماد على الاستثمار لم يظهر أي علامة تدل على التراجع. بل إن الصين تخضع الآن لعملية تعميق رأس المال (زيادة رأس المال عن كل عامل)، وهناك حاجة إلى المزيد من الاستثمار للمساهمة في زيادة الناتج والتقدم التكنولوجي في العديد من القطاعات.

في الفترة 1995-2010، عندما كان متوسط معدل نمو الناتج المحلي الإجمالي في الصين 9,9%، ازداد الاستثمار في الأصول الثابتة (الاستثمار في البنية الأساسية والمشاريع العقارية) بمعادل 11,2، لكي يرتفع بمعدل سنوي متوسط بلغ 20%. كما بلغ إجمالي الاستثمار في الأصول الثابتة 41,6% من الناتج المحلي الإجمالي في المتوسط، ليبلغ ذروته بنسبة 67% من الناتج المحلي الإجمالي في عام 2009، وهو مستوى لا يمكن تصوره في أغلب الدول المتقدمة.

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