Стареющий Китай

Китайское правительство, кажется, наконец осознает неотложные проблемы, вызванные старением населения страны. 12 декабря оно выпустило на уровне кабинета министров «белую книгу» по данной проблеме, – первую в своем роде, – в попытке справиться с будущим подорожанием социального страхования и здравоохранения, сокращением рынка труда и другими потенциальными препятствиями на пути продолжения быстрого экономического роста.

Если оглянуться назад, то иронией судьбы выглядит, что одновременно с драконовской политикой «одного ребенка», введенной китайским правительством в 1979 году, была провозглашена политика «открытых дверей», направленная на захват инвестиций со стороны иностранных трудоемких производств. Хотя оба эти принципа принесли успех, программа планирования семьи за долгие годы ее реализации способствовала старению населения, которое может снизить привлекательность Китая как центра низкозатратных трудоемких производств.

На протяжении почти трех десятилетий с момента введения в действие политики «одного ребенка», количество живых новорожденных упало с 22,5 миллионов в год в начале 80-х годов до 16-17 миллионов к середине нынешнего десятилетия. Более того, в сочетании с ростом количества пожилых в результате увеличения продолжительности жизни эта низкая рождаемость привела к тому, что доля населения в возрасте 65 лет и более возросла с 4,9% до 7,7%.

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