Paul Lachine

Chinas schlechter Schuldner

PEKING – Vor Ausbruch der Finanzkrise konzentrierten sich Kritiker der wirtschaftlichen Ungleichgewichte Chinas – also seiner Haushalts- und Außenhandelsüberschüsse – vor allem auf die Fehlallokation von Ressourcen, die auftritt, wenn arme Länder von reichen zu hohen Zinsen Geld borgen und ihnen dann dieses Geld zu niedrigen Zinsen leihen. Die große Ironie der Finanzkrise besteht darin, dass diese Situation nicht besser, sondern schlechter geworden ist.

Tatsächlich sind die chinesischen Devisenreserven mit einer dreifachen Attacke konfrontiert: einem Rückgang der Kaufkraft des US-Dollars, einem Preisverfall staatlicher US-Anleihen  und, auf lange Sicht, einer möglichen Inflation. Der Großteil der chinesischen Devisenreserven im Ausmaß von 2,3 Billionen Dollar wird nicht zum Schutz gegen externe Schocks gehalten, sondern als Ersparnisse in Form von öffentlichen Schuldverschreibungen der USA. Daher muss China den Wert seiner Ersparnisse erhalten.

Allerdings besteht auch kein Zweifel daran, dass der US-Dollar langfristig an Wert verlieren wird – also einer Abwertung unterliegt, die im April 2002 ihren Ausgang nahm und sich nach einer kurzen Pause im März 2009 fortsetzte. Wenn die amerikanische Wirtschaft ihre Handelsbilanz nicht verbessert, wird der Dollar an Wert verlieren. Aber die USA können die Handelsbilanz nicht verbessern, wenn der Dollar nicht fällt. Gemessen am Dollar-Index sind Kapitalverluste der chinesischen Devisenreserven also unvermeidlich.

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