El pasito de China

Sean cuales fueren los efectos económicos en última instancia del modesto primer paso de China hacia la flotación de su moneda, hay que admirar su brillantez estratégica. La genialidad de la mini-iniciativa de China (permitir que el yuan se aprecie un dos por ciento frente al dólar) consiste en que nadie puede decir cuándo o qué va a ocurrir a continuación.

Los proteccionistas de los Estados Unidos y Europa, deseosos de aplicar importantes aranceles punitivos a las mercancías chinas, han sido cogidos desprevenidos. Quieren mantenerse en la cresta de la ola de las informaciones de la prensa, pero, si llevan sus ataques a China demasiado lejos y rápidamente, se verá que los proteccionistas obstaculizan delicadas negociaciones entre bastidores.

Pero nadie sabe si el pasito de China es el comienzo de algo mayor, como las autoridades de China dan a entender un día y niegan el siguiente. Al ceder tan sólo un poco a la intensa presión mundial para que revalúe su tipo de cambio, los dirigentes chinos han ahogado magistralmente el coro en aumento de peticiones para que pongan coto a su superávit comercial cada vez mayor. Sin embargo, la cuestión fundamental sigue siendo la de si China está desafiando a las fuerzas del mercado con riesgo para sí misma.

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