El dolor de cabeza de USD $3,2 billones de China

BEIJING – Mientras que la rebaja de calificación de la deuda gubernamental de Estados Unidos por parte de Standard & Poor’s conmovió a los mercados financieros mundiales, China tiene más razones para ser el país más preocupado: la mayor parte – es decir, más del 60% – de los USD $3,2 billones que tiene en reservas oficiales de divisas están denominados en dólares estadounidenses, incluyendo USD $1,1 billones en bonos del Tesoro de Estados Unidos.

Siempre y cuando el gobierno de EE.UU. no ingrese en moratoria, las pérdidas de pudiese sufrir China por la rebaja de calificación serán pequeñas. Sin duda, el valor del dólar caerá, imponiendo una pérdida en el balance del Banco Popular de China (PBC, el banco central). Pero un dólar de menor valor hará que sea más barato para los consumidores y empresas chinas comprar productos estadounidenses. Si los precios se mantienen estables en los EE.UU., como es el caso en la actualidad, las ganancias provenientes de la compra de productos estadounidenses deben compensar exactamente las pérdidas en el balance del PBC.

La rebaja de calificación podría, además, forzar al Tesoro de EE.UU. a aumentar la tasa de interés de los bonos nuevos, lo que en el caso de China, podría a su vez posibilitar mayores ganancias. Pero la rebaja de calificación de S&P fue una mala decisión, tomada en el momento equivocado. Si las deudas de Estados Unidos se hubieran tornado, verdaderamente, en deudas menos confiables, ellas hubieran sido de confiabilidad aún más dudosa antes del acuerdo alcanzado el 2 de agosto por el Congreso y el presidente Barack Obama para elevar el techo de la deuda pública.

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