停滞的中国改革

北京—中国的改革走入了死胡同,根本利益的冲突和微妙的阻力机制阻碍了进步。在这些障碍被排除前,陷入减速的中国经济——2014年增长率为7.4%,是近四分之一世纪以来的最低值——几乎没有希望依靠改革给自己带来需要的推力。

中国领导人很熟悉实施彻底改革可能面临的困难。1978年,邓小平果断启动“改革开放”时,他也面临着激烈的反对——大多来自思想顽固的理论家和革命到底派。正如邓小平的地位和铁腕让他能够战胜反对者、让中国经济走上现代化进程,现任国家主席习近平的果断领导也能克服既得利益,实施必要的改革。

当然,协调中国的根本性利益不合绝非易事——因为利益集团不会公开透明地讨论改革,更不会反对。相反,他们指出改革风险太高,或者清除改革的具体规定。迄今为止,在减少政府干预方面只做出了很小的妥协,所影响到的权力要么无关紧要,要么实际上根本不存在。

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