Beijing building in China

遏制中国减速

首尔—专家们喜欢争论中国经济的增长前景,如今是悲观派占据上风。但许多人的预测是基于其他经济体的经验,而在过去三十年中,中国一直在打破经济增长的常规。那么,中国经济前景真如主流观点所认为的那么糟糕吗?果真如此的话,怎样改善其经济前景?

中国的状况毫无疑问是严重的。去年经济增长率为7.4%,是1990年以来的最低值;今年也不可能达到7%的官方目标。此外,据国际货币基金组织(IMF)的数据,2016年经济增长率只有6.3%。显然,国内活动疲软和外部需求下降的影响正在显现。

中国还在失去长期增长动力,生育率和投资回报率的下降抑制了劳动力扩张和资本积累。并且中国利用技术驱动的生产率进步也越来越困难。

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