China shopping mall Whitehotpix/ZumaPress

In Rallentamento la “Nuova Normalità” della Cina

MILANO – Le due più grandi economie del mondo, Stati Uniti e Cina, sembrano essere affette da condizioni recessive di lungo periodo. Ma rimane una notevole incertezza circa la loro traiettoria di crescita, con implicazioni significative per i prezzi delle attività, i rischi, e la politica economica.

Probabilmente gli Stati Uniti si stanno assestando attorno ad un tasso annuale reale di crescita (al netto dell’inflazione) di circa il 2%, sebbene rimanga motivo di acceso dibattito se esso sia uguale o inferiore al potenziale economico. Nel frattempo, la Cina sembra diretta verso un tasso di crescita del 6-7% che, lo scorso anno, il governo ha individuato come “nuova normalità” dell’economia. Alcuni osservatori concordano sul fatto che, per il prossimo decennio o giù di lì, tale tasso possa essere sostenuto, a condizione che, nei prossimi anni, il governo metta in atto un set completo di riforme. Altri, invece, si aspettano che la crescita del PIL cinese prosegua nella tendenza al ribasso, con possibilità di brusche cadute.

Vi è certamente motivo di preoccupazione. La crescita lenta ed incerta in Europa – un importante partner commerciale per Stati Uniti e Cina – sta determinando condizioni avverse in questi paesi.

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