banks in China Bloomberg | getty images

中国的高收入未来

伦敦—“如果这是‘尽善尽美’会怎样?”在同名电影中,杰克·尼克尔森(Jack Nicholson)一边在心理医生的候诊室来回踱步一边问。在最近的G-20财长上海会议上,与会者也问了相同的问题——不仅仅是为萎靡的全球增长中期预期而问。现在,许多人疑惑中国的当前增长率是否能够长时间“尽善尽美”。

研究这些担忧的合理性需要理解什么导致了中国经济减速。一些人给出了直观的解释:中国和其他主要新兴经济体一样,落入了致命的“中等收入陷阱”,无法突破跻身发达经济。但这需要假设一些外生力量或倾向导致国家“定”在某个收入水平上——这一观点被一项又一项学术研究所批驳。

诚然,各国确实常常难以实现高收入。据世界银行的数据,1960年归为中等收入的101个国家,只有13个在2008年跻身高收入行列。此外,一些中等收入国家在经历了强劲增长后在某个人均收入水平上被“困”了几十年。比如,1870—1940年间,阿根廷人均收入增长堪比美国;此后两国差距逐渐拉开。同理,甚至有的国家已经进入高收入行列,但有倒退到中等收入水平。

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