L'economia cinese è davvero nuova e normale?

HONG KONG – Ho appena trascorso una settimana in Cina, dove ho partecipato al Boao Asia Forum, una conferenza simile al raduno annuale del World Economic Forum di Davos. L'argomento di cui si è occupato il mio gruppo di lavoro riguardava ciò che il presidente Xi Jinping ha definito la "nuova normalità" dell'economia cinese, cioè un periodo di crescita più lenta che fa seguito a tre decenni di espansione economica a due cifre.

In realtà, quello che mi colpisce dell'economia cinese è proprio la straordinarietà. La sua performance, infatti, non cessa di stupirmi. Perciò, pur dovendo affrontare ancora numerose sfide, quanta probabilità ha il paese di frenare l'economia?

Dei quattro paesi BRIC – Brasile, Russia, India e Cina – quello guidato da Xi è l'unico che finora, in questo decennio, ha soddisfatto le mie aspettative di crescita. Tra il 2011 e il 2014, l'economia cinese ha registrato un incremento annuale medio dell'8%. Se il suo tasso di crescita si attesta intorno al 7% per il resto del decennio, come le autorità e molti osservatori prevedono, il paese raggiungerà un ritmo di espansione medio del 7,5%, confermando le mie previsioni.

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