中国新常态,不新亦不常

香港—我刚刚在中国度过了一周时间,参加了类似于达沃斯世界经济论坛的一年一度的博鳌亚洲论坛。我所在的讨论组的主题是中国国家主席习近平所提出的中国经济的“新常态”:在三十年的两位数经济扩张期后,中国将迎来一个增长相对较缓的时期。

但让我印象最深的是中国经济的非凡之处。事实上,它的表现仍然让我震惊。尽管它毫无疑问面临着诸多挑战,但关键问题是这些挑战会怎样影响经济。

在金砖四国(巴西、俄罗斯、 印度、中国)中,习近平的国家是在这个十年以来唯一一个达到我的预期的。从2011年到2014年,中国经济平均每年增长8%。如果在这个十年的剩余时间以每年7%左右,即中国当局和许多观察者所预计的速度增长,则整个十年的平均扩张速度为7.5%,与我的预测相当。

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