中国的双轨挑战

香港—中国经济减速的迹象从未如此明显。决策者是否能够成功避免硬着陆,取决于他们是否能够应对来自日益分化的双轨经济的挑战。

1月份的最新同比数据彰显出危险程度。消费物价指数下跌0.8%;生产物价指数下跌4.3%;出口减少3.3%;进口减少19.9%;广义货币(M2)增速放缓1.4%。

此外,人民币正在经受贬值的压力,部分是因为美国经济复苏加速了资本外流。考虑到工业利润增长下降(从2013年的12.2%下降到去年的3.3%)和地方政府卖地收入下降(2014年下降37%),不禁令人担忧,目前的通缩周期可能引发企业和地方政府的债务危机。

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