China foreign exchange Zhang Chunlei/ZumaPress

As Loucuras Cambiais da China

BERKELEY – A 11 de Agosto, a China desvalorizou a sua moeda em 2% e reformou modestamente o seu sistema de taxas de câmbio. Este acontecimento não teve uma importância desmesurada, mas os mercados financeiros responderam como se tivessem sido atingidos por um meteorito. A reacção negativa não tem qualquer mistério: a desvalorização da China é um exemplo académico de como a política cambial não deve ser conduzida.

Uma das motivações do governo era, presumivelmente, proporcionar um impulso à economia Chinesa em desaceleração. Embora o sector dos serviços, responsável pela maioria dos empregos, se esteja a aguentar relativamente bem, a produção nacional de bens transaccionáveis, muitos dos quais são produzidos para exportação, está a decrescer acentuadamente. Os exportadores Chineses foram apanhados na tenaz da fraca procura externa e dos salários nacionais em rápido crescimento.

A desvalorização é o remédio experimentado e comprovado para estes males. Mas uma alteração de 2% no valor da moeda é demasiado baixa para fazer qualquer diferença, dado que os salários na indústria Chinesa estão a subir a uma taxa anual de 10%.

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