China foreign exchange Zhang Chunlei/ZumaPress

中国的汇率愚行

发自伯克利——八月十一日,中国将其人民币汇率下调了2%并稍微改革了其汇率体系。这并不算是什么石破天惊的事件,但金融市场的反应却仿佛是被陨石击中了。这一负面反应也不是什么意外:因为中国的货币贬值措施也堪称是如何拒不实施汇率政策的教科书式案例。

该国政府的其中一个动机估计是将推动不断放缓的经济。虽然占就业大多数的服务部门情况依然相对不错,但该国可贸易商品的生产——许多供出口——却遭遇大幅下滑。中国的出口商如今正困在弱势国外需求和迅速攀升的国内工资水平的夹缝中。

对于这些问题,贬值是一个屡试不爽的解决方案。但考虑到中国制造业的工资水平年均10%的增长,仅仅2%的币值变化有点似杯水车薪。

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