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面临蒙代尔-弗莱明三元悖论的中国

发自北京——多年一直出手干预人民币汇率的中国人民银行如今正面临着实施浮动汇率的压力。但在放松汇率管制和维持货币稳定之间取得平衡可绝非易事。

所有经济学学生都学习过蒙代尔-弗莱明模型(Mundell-Fleming model),该模型指出一个经济是不可能同时具备固定汇率,自由资本流动和独立货币政策。如果某个实施固定汇率和开放资本账户的国家为了抑制通胀而收紧货币政策,那么其国内利率的上升将促使市场参与者借入外币并将其兑换成本国货币以投资国内资产。

由此产生的资本流入如果一直持续就会对货币汇率产生上行压力,迫使央行为维持汇率稳定而售出本国货币——主要是兑换美元——直到利率和货币供应量恢复到原先的水平。

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