Ein Fenster zur neuen chinesischen Normalität

CAMBRIDGE – Jedes Jahr um diese Zeit organisiert die chinesische Regierung eine große Konferenz – finanziert von Zentrum für Entwicklungsforschung, dem offiziellen Thinktank des Staatsrats – auf der sich hohe chinesische Beamte, CEOs großer chinesischer und westlicher Unternehmen und eine kleine Gruppe internationaler Beamter und Akademiker treffen. Dieses Chinesische Entwicklungsforum (CEF) findet direkt nach dem jährlichen Nationalen Volkskongress statt.

Auf dem Forum fassen die Sprecher, darunter der Finanzminister und der Zentralbankchef, die aktuellen Ansichten der chinesischen Führung zusammen. Dann hören sich die Beamten Kommentare und Vorschläge der westlichen Unternehmensführer und Experten an, was auch eine Frage- und Antwortstunde mit Ministerpräsident Li Keqiang einschließt.

Ich nehme nun schon seit über zehn Jahren an den Treffen des CEF teil, aber dieses Jahr hatte ich den Eindruck, dass sich die Konferenz grundlegend von den bisherigen unterschied. Dies lag vor allem am öffentlichen Eingeständnis Chinas, dass das jährliche reale BIP nun niedriger ist als der Durchschnittswert der letzten drei Jahrzehnte von fast 10%. Die offizielle Schätzung für 2014 beträgt 7,4%, und dieses Jahr wird der Wert wohl weiter auf 7% zurückgehen. Laut detaillierter Prognosen des Zentrums für Entwicklungsforschung soll die Wachstumsrate weiter fallen und bis zum Ende des Jahrzehnts 6% erreichen.

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