Rooftop in China

A nova e acidentada normalidade da China

XANGAI – A transição da China, de um crescimento baseado nas exportações para um modelo baseado em serviços internos e no consumo das famílias, tem sido muito mais acidentada do que alguns previam, com as revoluções no mercado accionista e a volatilidade da taxa de câmbio a potenciarem receios sobre a estabilidade económica do país. E contudo, em termos históricos, a economia da China ainda tem um bom desempenho (a um crescimento anual do PIB de 7%, alguns diriam um excelente desempenho), mas o sucesso à escala que a China testemunhou durante as últimas três décadas alimenta expectativas elevadas.

Há aqui uma lição básica: os “Mercados com características Chinesas” são tão voláteis e difíceis de controlar como os mercados com características Americanas. Os mercados ganham invariavelmente vida própria; não acatam ordens facilmente. A medida em que os mercados podem ser controlados depende das regras do jogo serem definidas de um modo transparente.

Todos os mercados precisam de regras e de regulamentos. As regras boas podem ajudar a estabilizar os mercados. As regras mal concebidas, mesmo que bem-intencionadas, podem ter o efeito oposto.

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