Rooftop in China

Quel type de relance pour l'économie chinoise ?

SHANGHAI – Le basculement de la Chine d'un modèle de croissance basé sur l'exportation à un autre basé sur les services et la consommation des ménages est bien plus chaotique que ce que l'on aurait pu croire. Cela tient notamment aux décrochages de la Bourse et à la volatilité des taux de change qui suscitent des craintes quant à la stabilité de l'économie du pays. Pourtant au regard de l'Histoire, l'économie chinoise se porte bien - on pourrait même dire très bien, compte tenu d'une croissance du PIB proche de 7%. Mais le succès économique de l'empire du Milieu au cours des trois dernières décennies a suscité des attentes fortes.

Retenons une leçon fondamentale : les marchés de type chinois sont aussi volatiles et difficiles à contrôler que les marchés de type américain. Les marchés ont leur vie propre et de ce fait ils sont difficiles à maîtriser. Et dans la mesure où on peut les contrôler, c'est en établissant la règle du jeu en toute transparence. Tous les marchés doivent être réglementés. Une bonne réglementation aide à les stabiliser, une mauvaise - aussi bien intentionnée soit-elle - peut avoir l'effet opposé.

Ainsi, depuis le crash des marchés financiers de 1987 aux USA, l'importance des coupe-circuit boursiers est reconnue ; mais s'ils sont mal conçus, ils accroissent la volatilité. S'il existe un double système de coupe-circuit - la suspension des opérations à court terme et à long terme - et s'ils sont trop rapprochés l'un de l'autre, une fois le premier actionné, les acteurs du marché réalisant que le second va sans doute l'être aussi, risquent de se ruer vers la sortie.

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