Pearl Tower Shanghai sama093/Flickr

激发引导中国的企业家精神

香港—为了减轻企业和地方政府的债务负担,中国人民银行在六个月内第三次降低了利率。但人行的货币宽松——以及配套的财政政策和行政机构改革——对于增加新贷款需求没有起到理想的效果。相反,货币政策的调整导致了中国股市大涨。现在的问题是,这是否能够变成一件大好事。

毫无疑问,中国经济正在快速换挡。官方数据表明,旧制造业和以建筑业为基础的经济实际增长已经放缓,这反映在出口利润下滑、违约率上升和不良贷款增加,特别表现在业绩表现较差的城市和地区。与此同时,政府在治理腐败、产能过剩、地方过度负债和污染等问题的措施也给投资、消费以及增长造成了压力。

在中央政府所施加的预算约束趋紧的情况下,地方官员和国有企业削减了投资支出,并且变得过于谨慎。从短期看,这些结构调整可能导致局部地区及行业的资产负债表衰退,即使中央政府正在尽力创造更宽松合适的宏观经济环境。

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