Buddha figures on wall

Die Sanierung Chinas

LONDON – In den letzten Monaten hat sich eine pessimistische Sicht auf China verbreitet, die von der Angst vor einer „chinesischen Kernschmelze“ geprägt ist und seit Anfang des Jahres Schockwellen durch die weltweiten Aktienmärkte sendet. Und so gut wie jeder, so scheint es, wettet auf den Niedergang des Landes.

Sicherlich gibt es viele Gründe zur Sorge. Das BIP-Wachstum ist stark zurückgegangen; die Schuldenquoten der Konzerne sind beispiellos hoch; die Währung rutscht ab; die Aktienmärkte sind besonders volatil; und das Kapital fließt mit einer alarmierenden Geschwindigkeit aus dem Land. Die Frage ist, warum dies geschieht und ob die chinesischen Behörden etwas dagegen tun können, bevor es zu spät ist.

Die allgemeine – und offizielle – Sichtweise ist, dass sich China in einem Wandel hin zu einer „neuen Normalität“ niedrigeren Wachstums befindet, das nicht mehr auf Exporten beruht, sondern auf dem Konsum im Inland. Und wie üblich tauchten ein paar ökonomische Studien auf, die dieses Konzept untermauern. Diese Interpretation mag zwar bequem sein, verbreitet aber eine falsche Sicherheit.

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