Buddha figures on wall

إصلاح الصين

لندن ــ في الأشهر الأخيرة، أصبح التشاؤم بشأن الصين متفشيا، في ظل المخاوف من "انهيار الصين" والتي ترسل موجات الصدمة عبر أسواق الأوراق المالية في مختلف أنحاء العالم منذ بداية العام. ويبدو أن الجميع تقريباً يبيعون الأسهم الصينية في انتظار هبوط أسعارها.

من المؤكد أن أسباب القلق وفيرة. فقد تباطأ نمو الناتج المحلي الإجمالي بشكل حاد؛ وارتفعت نسب ديون الشركات إلى مستويات غير مسبوقة؛ والعملة في انحدار؛ وأصبحت أسواق الأسهم شديدة التقلب؛ ويتدفق رأس المال إلى خارج البلاد بوتيرة مثيرة للانزعاج. والسؤال هو لماذا يحدث كل هذا، وما إذا كانت السلطات في الصين قادرة على إصلاح الأمر، قبل أن يفوت الأوان.

يتلخص الرأي الشعبي ــ والرسمي ــ في أن الصين تمر بمرحلة تحول إلى "المعتاد الجديد" الذي يتسم بنمو أبطأ للناتج المحلي الإجمالي، ويستند إلى الاستهلاك المحلي وليس الصادرات. وكما جرت العادة، ظهرت حفنة من الدراسات الاقتصادية التي تبرر هذا المفهوم. بيد أن هذا التفسير، برغم كونه مريحا، لا يقدم سوى راحة زائفة.

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